Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Robin Hayes, NC-08: Desp-er-a-a-tion

It's des-per-a-tion.
It's des-per-a-a-tion.
He's making them sweat.
He's making their tighty whities wet.

What a joke. The latest poll conducted by one of Robin Hayes' contributors and the preferred partisan Republican pollster for today's hip and stylish Washington "in" crowd, says something completely different from any poll conducted in the district so far this election cycle. Mind you, I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, just that they don't match up with anything else we've seen recently. (PDF)

It must be that special way they have of asking questions over at Public Opinion Strategies. For example, this question found in a discarded script: Would you feel favorably or unfavorably about the Democratic candidate if you found out he/she had committed murder/adultery or had unpaid parking tickets or low SAT scores? (I made this question up....but I'm just sayin'.........)

Ahh, yes, the always reliable push poll. They are the perennial favorite of many Republican pollsters. Of course, when Robin Hayes has already lied in every ad piece released on television, radio or through the mail, what's a little lie over the phone? You've got to hand it to them. When they lie, they make sure they use every medium available.

But, maybe I've been hasty in dismissing this poll. Let's take a close look at the methodology, questions and results.

No information released other than it was a "scientific" survey of 400 people with a margin of error of 4.9%

No questions released.

You can find the results by clicking here. It's what a typical release looks like when it's your own internal poll and you need to manipulate the numbers a bit to say what you want. The last thing you do is let reporters see your data.

It doesn't take any amount of skill or talent to pull a poll out of your hind side. Look how quickly and easily I, The Southern Dem, poll people from several different states. My roving pollster Working for Change has polled people in Virginia, the Washington DC area, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania this very night. We can report that 100% of those polled said they would vote for Larry Kissell if given the chance and 100% polled said that Robin Hayes is a liar. As the roving pollster drove through each state I received an update on our poll. The numbers did not shift. Of course WFC and her mother probably got tired of asking each other the same questions over and over again as they drove from state to state. However..............I get... my point.

If we can't examine methodology and questions to give us a better feel for the validity of the poll, then we have to look at the company itself. This is what I can find from SourceWatch:
In 2001, it was charged with violating Virginia's polling disclosure laws, and it has also been accused of using push polls to influence elections.
One of those accusations occurred as recently as a few days ago up in Maryland. The article can be found at The Baltimore Sun.

I also find in my investigation that all of the four principals of POS who are listed at SourceWatch - Glenn Bolger, William D. McInturff, Neil S. Newhouse and Gene Ulm - have given generously to Republicans and a couple have given to TOMPAC, Together for Our Majority Political Action Committee. This is the leadership pack for embattled RNCC leader Tom Reynolds. Yes, the Tom Reynolds who helped shelter Mark Foley, a gay Republican congressman who groomed 16 year old male pages for future.....ah service to...ah...their country. Yes, the very same Tom Reynolds who has financed Robin Hayes to the tune of at least $30,000 over the last 3 cycles through his TOMPAC and the very same Mark Foley who was responsible for "whipping" up all those votes for CAFTA.

Are you getting a picture of that tangled GOP web they have going there in Washington? First you have a polling company with four principals who are Republicans and between them give generously to Tom Reynolds' PAC. Then you have Tom Reynolds as chair of the RNCC - the committee charged with helping Republicans get elected to congress who benefits from polling that shows his Republicans leading. He also benefits from those push polls - polls that are actually marketing tools used to sway voters, not gather data. Then you see Tom Reynolds giving money to his loyal Republican followers like Robin Hayes. Reynolds gives the max each cycle to keep Hayes in his fold. Hayes turns around and hires the polling firm that gives so generously to Tom Reynolds' PAC. In return, Hayes gets the numbers he wants to see.

It's just one big Republican circle jerk up in Washington.

I can imagine the Hayes camp celebration. It's probably quite a sight over there. I congratulate you on your little poll, even if the numbers are a bit suspect.

I'm sure you'll pardon the rest of us for not joining in your celebration. You see, while you are reaching in to your bottomless bag of filth to win this election there were ten American servicemen and women killed in Iraq yesterday. That's the highest number killed in one day in the past ten months. It's a reason to mourn, not to celebrate. This war that Hayes has pledged his undying support for is not a cause for jubilation.

As you celebrate your poll, another textile mill in Concord, NC has announced that it is closing and 235 of our fellow citizens face uncertain futures. The cause? This new "global trade environment" that was bolstered by Robin Hayes' vote for CAFTA. You know, the trade bill he promised vehemently to vote against. Right, right....he sold out his constituents for trade protections with China.

China, yes, China. The very country that we are relying on to help manage the volatile situation in North Korea. Do you honestly think we are going to be able to play hard and heavy on trade with China when we are relying on them to support trade sanctions against North Korea, their traditional ally? China is a major power broker in this very tenuous situation with North Korea. Do you really think we're going to play it tough with them on fabric imports when they are busy dealing with a nuclear North Korea?

This is a serious world we live in Congressman Hayes. You and your campaign staff can busy yourselves with games and silly attack ads. You can continue banking on your belief that your constituents are too stupid to see through your attacks. The fact is, many of them are not better off than they were in 1998 when you took office. They live every day with the threat of those things we commoners have to deal with - job loss, healthcare bills, a loved one shipping off to Iraq or a late payment on their car. They aren't stupid, Congressman. Many of them see you for what you are - a privileged wealthy man whose sense of entitlement has blinded him to the real concerns of his contituents. They see a man more concerned with protecting his own $55 million than protecting the people who are happy to have $55.00.

Something tells me these people aren't represented in your poll, Congressman Hayes.


Blogger Sam Spencer said...

The Hayes poll, as Senator Biden would say, is complete malarkey. However, we cannot rest on the CD poll either. Anyone with two good legs needs to be out there door to door this weekend; anyone with two good ears needs to be calling for Larry. And if you have neither, or you're lazy (but guilty), donate your $88.94 here:

1:42 AM, October 20, 2006  
Blogger B. Muse said...

Go Sam, Go! I will be managing my new teenager's (she turned 13 last weekend) birthday "mall crawl" this weekend. (She's much too old for a birthday party, doncha know) The girls are hitting all the malls fit to crawl. Hehe...they turned their noses up at South Park. Ouch!

I'd rather be knocking on doors or making phone calls.

7:18 AM, October 20, 2006  

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